(Almost) Full January Recap and Playoff Outlooks for the Keystone
Written by: David Bray on February 2, 2025
Over the past three weeks, there has been much to consider, not only for the Keystone standings but for the Mid-Penn Playoffs and District 3 and 6 Playoffs. Due to the longevity of the events that have happened, I am going to take a look at the general details of the few weeks and what’s to come for the next few. That being said, here’s the breakdown for every Keystone team with their past performances and what’s to come for the final games of the regular season and possible continuation to the playoffs.
1. Mechanicsburg (18-2 Overall, 12-1 Division)
Mechanicsburg holds onto the solo lead in the Keystone Division, cementing a place in the Mid-Penn Championships, unless Mifflin County wants to spoil their fun. Mechanicsburg has won 7 straight since the last recap, with key wins over an undefeated Hershey by 8 points and Milton Hershey by double digits. Mechanicsburg has had a few close games, with single-digit scores separating Mechanicsburg from Cedar Cliff and Red Land, however, they’ve been able to rise to the occasion when Coach Gaffey needs them to succeed. Josh Smith and Chance Yanoski have been doing what they do best, putting together 21 and 25 points each respectively against Milton Hershey. Currently, the Wildcats sit in a firm second in their first season in the 6A with only the powerhouse of Central York sitting above them by almost 4 percentage points in rating. If the playoffs froze today, Mechanicsburg would have the bye going into the first round of the playoffs, virtually locking them into states, however, with the powerhouse of a section like the 6A, Mechanicsburg will face either the current 7 seed Warwick (16-2) or the current 10 seed Muhlenburg (13-5). The Wildcats have 2 games left on their schedule, with Mifflin County on the road on Tuesday finishing off their Keystone Division play and a non-divisional matchup against Penn Manor after it got rescheduled from earlier in the season. Mechanicsburg is locked into the playoffs, it’s all about where they will be placed in a few weeks.
2. Hershey (17-2 Overall, 11-2 Division)
In the last recap, Hershey went into January undefeated, however, 2 losses to Milton Hershey and Mechanicsburg, both in dramatic fashion, give Hershey the second-place spot in the division, separated by one game. Hershey is still securing wins despite the few losses they’ve had, winning 7 of the last 9, including key wins against Lower Dauphin and the first matchup against Milton Hershey. Cameron Sweeney has had some of the best games of his career, with 36 points, a Keystone season high, against Mechanicsburg in the loss and 32 against Milton Hershey in their second matchup. If there’s a guard to watch out for come playoff time, it’s junior Cameron Sweeney. James Campbell has had a little bit of trouble scoring in recent performances, but it’s all about contributions as his assist numbers have gone up, giving Hershey the boost they need. Hershey leads the 5A with the highest rating out of everyone, with Manheim Central trailing behind, securing Hershey a playoff spot in the newly expanded field of 16 teams. The only real worry would be who ends up in the 16 spot as Keystone teams Lower Dauphin, Palmyra, and Red Land are hoping to fill that spot. Hershey can be the Mid-Penn Keystone representative in the tournament, however, they will have to bank on a few losses for Mechanicsburg for their final 2 teams. Hershey has one of the toughest schedules left in the Keystone, with matchups against Palmyra on the road on Tuesday, a non-divisional game against East Pennsboro on Friday, and a game against Middletown for the final Keystone regular season matchup on February 12th.
3. Milton Hershey (12-7 Overall, 9-4 Division)
I would first like to point out how Milton Hershey has turned themselves around from a 3-19 team last season to putting up double-digit wins and placing themselves in prime position to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2022-23 season when they won the Keystone. Milton Hershey got their biggest win of the year at home against a one-loss Hershey, giving the team a boost in the standings, however, the Spartans did lose a few games in the span, with losses Red Land, Central Dauphin East, and Susquehanna Township being the most impactful games. Milton Hershey has been 5-6 since the last recap, however, Khalif Turner has been very steady for the team, holding an average of around 19 points per game. Dylan Crawford has been having a strong stretch of games, averaging around 11 points and 6 rebounds over the past 4 games. Turner has been faceguarded over the past few games, but if he keeps setting screens and getting his teammates open, he will get his chances to continue being one of the best guards in the Keystone this season. Milton Hershey continues their gauntlet of a second-half schedule with 3 more games before the end of the season, starting with a matchup at home against Cedar Cliff on Tuesday, a non-divisional matchup against Cedar Crest on Wednesday, and a final game against Donegal at home on Friday.
4. Lower Dauphin (8-9 Overall, 6-6 Division)
Lower Dauphin sits on the brink of the playoffs once again with the team hoping for the same result as last season, squeezing into the 12-seed with a 12-10 record. The Falcons sit in the 16th and the final spot of the 5A playoffs after a 3-4 record over the past few weeks, including wins against Cedar Cliff, Palmyra, and Mifflin County, however, Lower Dauphin has had an issue with Hershey, Milton Hershey, Ephrata, and Mechanicsburg over that period. Lower Dauphin has a crucial next couple of games coming up and with how there’s been many different factors helping the Falcons win, who knows who will step up in the clutch? Last game against Mifflin County, Evan Deibler was the leading scorer for Lower Dauphin with 16 points, but Nico DeFrank and Brady Hofsass have been key players throughout the season, with DeFrank contributing around 14 points per game. As of right now, they would face Hershey in the first round of the playoffs, which might be the best-case scenario for them, as they’ve battled and been within a few possessions of wins against their cross-town rival. Lower Dauphin has a few games left for the end of the season, starting with an away game at Northern York on Monday, a home game against Red Land on Tuesday, an away game at Lampeter-Strasburg on Thursday, and the final home game against Mifflin County on Saturday. If Lower Dauphin can grab at least half of those games, they have a shot at sticking in the tight playoff race.
5. Palmyra (7-12 Overall, 4-8 Division)
Despite Palmyra’s record, they are a few wins away from taking their first playoff spot since the 2020-21 season to my knowledge. Palmyra is 2-5 since we last took a look back at the team, with wins against Cedar Cliff and Mifflin County and notable losses to Pottsville, Milton Hershey, and Red Land, all by single digits. Palmyra has been led by Alex Dorta throughout the season, leading the team in points and assists while Micah Warner has been a force in the middle. The Cougars have had a few key wins over the past month and a half and have been keeping games close between some of the best in the game, however, it’s the momentum of the team and getting hot at the right time which has been plaguing the team throughout the season. Palmyra has the team to make the playoffs, but just like how this entire season has gone, it’s about getting good at the right time. Palmyra sits 18th in the 5A power rankings, trailing only 10-10 New Oxford to the playoff bubble, but with how strong their schedule has been, Palmyra could win out this next week and slide into the final spot of the playoffs. Palmyra will take on Hershey on Tuesday, which could change the tide with an upset win at home. The Cougars will then head on the road against ELCO on Friday and finish off their season in a matchup against Red Land at home on Monday, February 10th.
6. Red Land (7-12 Overall, 4-8 Division)
Just like the team in front of them, Red Land is fighting for a playoff spot after losing most of their players from last season, fighting with key wins against Milton Hershey and Palmyra in the past couple of weeks. Red Land currently sits 21st in the standings, however, the teams in front have equal or one more win than this team. Red Land has proved itself to be getting better throughout the year, relying less on leading scorer Colton Rose and involving more of Noah May, Quinlin Shearer, and Austin Michelsen. In the game against Milton Hershey, Rose was limited to single-digit points, however, May and Shearer played important roles in the win, rebounding and scoring efficiently for the Patriots. With 3 games left on their schedule, the best chance to have a shot to get in, just like Palmyra, is to win out. As long as Rose can continue shooting lights out like he has been all season and the rest of the team can contribute efficiently, this team has a chance to be a sneaky player come playoff time. Red Land will take on Lower Dauphin on Tuesday, a key game to shift the standings a little, will go on the road against Northern York on Friday, and will face off against Palmyra on February 10th for their final game of the season.
7. Mifflin County (7-10 Overall, 3-9 Division)
Oddly enough from the rest of the division, Mifflin County is second place in their section, which sounds odd from how this is ranked, but they are neck-and-neck with current first-place holder State College, separated by only a game or two moving into the final stretch for the Section VI 6A team. Mifflin County has had an even stretch over the past few games going 4-4, with wins over Selinsgrove, Bellefonte, Cedar Cliff, and Red Land and losses to Palmyra, Milton Hershey, Hershey, and Lower Dauphin. Mifflin County has been struggling with injuries throughout the entire season, but the possibility that Zach Keller can be back for the playoffs changes the chances for the better for the Huskies. Jack Curry, Aidan Attivo, and Evan Strohecker are key contributors to the program will give them the chance to succeed over the next couple of games, giving them the best chance possible to place them in the driver’s seat for the 6A and potentially make the state tournament which the fans would love to see around the area. Mifflin County will take on Mechanicsburg at home on Tuesday, Lower Dauphin on Saturday, fellow Section 6 opponent Altoona on Monday, February 10th, and will take on Section 4’s Midd-West on Tuesday, February 11th.
8. Cedar Cliff (3-18 Overall, 1-12 Division)
Unfortunately for the Colts, Cedar Cliff is the only team that is for sure out of the playoffs, as the team has gone 1-6 over the past few games, picking up their only win against Red Land to even up the rivalry series. Cedar Cliff will lose the Lehman twins and Mohamed Ahmed in the next season, but Cedar Cliff has a lot to work with, including Jayvion Walker, who is the leading scorer for the Colts, but is a three-point deadeye when he gets hot. Troy Joray will be fun to watch for the next couple of seasons, with an efficient shooting percentage and a 6’4 height who has pestered guards in the paint from this season. With one Ahmed leaving, another has stepped up with Amin Ahmed who has played an important role coming off the bench, leaving room for his next three seasons to be something to watch for myself and potential future spots to play moving forward. Cedar Cliff could play some fun playoff-shifting basketball with their final game being against Milton Hershey on Tuesday. Despite their success being hindered by a lot of one or two-possession games, Cedar Cliff is fun to watch and will have improvements in the next couple of seasons under Coach Rutherford.
The next recap will be following the Tuesday matchup between Middletown and Hershey on the 12th and I will talk about all of the teams for one final time before we say goodbye to a fantastic regular season of basketball.
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