Cross Court Vision Round 1 Play off Preview: Octorara @ Warwick

Written by: Sterling Cross on February 7, 2025

Section 2 and Section 3 ended up exactly as I thought when I surveyed the landscape at the mid-way point of league play, so catch up on those articles if you want a little more insight into these teams. This is the first of 4 posts previewing each of the Round 1 LL League Play Off Games:

Octorara @ Warwick Preview:

The Warwick Warriors will face off against the Octorara Braves at home on Monday night in the first round of the LL League Playoffs.

Coach Christensen was in Atglen on Tuesday night to watch the Braves fall to LS 45-36. The Pioneers limited Octorara’s leading scorer Vinny Thaler from getting touches in the paint, and took care of the ball on offense – not letting the Braves turn them over and get out into transition. The Warriors have the personnel to run that same game plan but potentially even more effectively on defense while certainly being more potent offensively.

On paper this is a very even matchup, but I think it’s a tough draw for the Braves, who would’ve have lined up better against most other playoff contenders. Coach Lambert will need this one to be a bit of a shoot-out. If the Braves are going to manage the upset, they will need to score in bunches from three, get out in transition at every opportunity and open up some space inside for Thaler to operate around the rim. Penn Manor needed overtime, but managed to get the job done against Warwick a month ago. I think Octorara is a better version of the Comets.

Worth noting that these two teams faced off at Warwick in late November. I was on hand in Lititz, and if memory serves, Warwick got the better of the Braves in that one. It was a scrimmage, in the middle school gym more than two months ago and the Braves were short-handed, so probably not that relevant today, but still, these players have been on the court together relatively recently.

By the Numbers:

– I’ve seen the Warriors play 5 times and the Braves play 7 times this season in addition to the preseason scrimmage

– The Braves and Warriors have both played Solanco, Manheim Central, and Donegal this season. In their most recent matchups against like opponents, Warwick is 2-1 +14ppg while Octorara is 2-1 with an average +/- of +4ppg. They both lost on the road against Manheim Central by 4 points, Warwick lost 65-69 and Octorara fell by a score of 51-55. Octorara did beat Manheim Central at home in their most recent matchup, but let a 13 point 3rd quarter lead dwindle to a 5 point final margin. Worth noting that Warwick also held a double digit lead against Manheim Central, which they may have been able to hang onto if the game were played at home.

– The Warriors gave up an average of 47 points in wins and 64 ppg in their 4 losses. On the offensive end, they scored rough the same in wins and losses, 64 and 59 ppg respectively, so it really is a matter of whether opposing offenses can find a way to score.

– Warwick has only played in 4 close games this year (defined as games ultimately decided by two possessions or less), owing mostly to the fact that they are blowing teams out by 17 ppg in wins. But the Warriors are 1-3 in those match ups.

– On average, Warwick scored 10 points more than their opponents defensive average and held opponents 3 points below their offensive average for the season.

– The Braves averaged 64 points in wins and a mere 49 ppg in their 3 losses. If Octorara has a cold shooting night they are very beatable. On the defensive end, they allowed 53 ppg in wins vs 56 ppg in losses, so it really is a matter of getting shots to fall.

– Octorara is 6 points worse on the road than at home, evenly split between lower offensive production and more points allowed when away from Atglen.

– Octorara has never lost when scoring 60 points or more, a feat they accomplished in 14 of their 18 wins (and of course none of their 3 losses) 

– On average, Octorara scored 8 points more than their opponents defensive average but allow opponents to score a point more than they averaged for the season on offense. 

Game Prediction:

 I think its more likely than not that the Warrior’s advance to the next round by a score of 64 – 57, but my bracket has Octorara winning 64-60. I’ll always bet on my guys to come up big in the post season!

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