Cross Court Vision Round 1 Play Off Preview: Conestoga Valley @ Manheim Central
Written by: Sterling Cross on February 7, 2025
Section 2 and Section 3 ended up exactly as I thought when I surveyed the landscape at the mid-way point of league play, so catch up on those articles if you want a little more insight into these teams. This is the second of 4 posts previewing each of the Round 1 LL League Play Off Games (read Octorara @ Warwick here):
Conestoga Valley @ Manheim Central Preview:
The Manheim Central Baron’s will face off against the Conestoga Valley Buckskins at home on Monday night in the first round of the LL League Playoffs.
This is a rematch of an early season game that the Baron’s won, but by only 6 points. In that game, Demere Salisberry went off for 25, so it might make sense to assume the Baron’s should win more easily if they can hold him to a figure in the mid-to-high teens. But I think the first matchup more proved that the Barons are too good to be beaten by one player.
What made their first game with the Baron’s close was the contributions from Toby Schaub and Sawyer Esbenshade who combined to score 23 points, 3 points better than their season average scoring clip. The Baron’s have only been beaten once this year by an LL opponent, and Octorara accomplished the feat essentially with the same game plan as Conestoga Valley (48 combined points from their top 3 scorers), but they executed at a slightly higher level on defense and go slightly more from their supporting cast. Its been a while since the first contest, and Conestoga Valley just needs to execute the same game plan a little more efficiently to walk away victorious. They were able to do it in a must win game on the road against Ephrata earlier this year and if the Buckskins can do that again on Monday night, they’ll have a shot to advance.
By the Numbers:
– I’ve seen the Barons and the Buckskins play 4 times each this season, in those games the Central was 3-1 and CV was 2-2
– In addition to playing each other earlier in the season, Manheim Central and Conestoga Valley have each played Solanco, Cocalico, West York, Etown, and Warwick. In their most recent matchups against those opponents, Manheim Central is 4-1 with an average +/- of +10ppg while Conestoga Valley is 3-2 with an average +/- of +2ppg. At home against Warwick, Manheim Central managed to erase a double-digit deficit to come out ahead 69-65, while the Buckskins went on to lose to the Warriors 66-51.
– The Barons are the only team in the league undefeated at home – beating teams in the Derb by an average of 16ppg.
– Manheim Central is 5-2 in games decided by 2 possessions or less and are undefeated in all other games decided by 7 points or more.
– Conestoga Valley is 10-1 when scoring over 55 points, with the one loss coming on the road against Penn Manor 63-66 in the first game of the season.
– The Buckskins have been held below 50 points 8 times this season and are 1-7 in those matchups (with the lone outlier being a 49-38 victory over Solanco).
– The Barons have held teams under 50 points in 15 of their 22 games this season and scored at least 55 points themselves in all but 5 games.
– CV played every team in the LL Playoffs this season except Lancaster Country Day and Octorara. They were 1-5 in those games
– On average, Manheim Central scored 5 points more than their opponents defensive average and held opponents 8 points below their offensive average for the season.
– On average, CV scored 1 point more than their opponents give up and held opponents 2 points below their season average.
Prediction:
– I still think this tournament is Manheim Central’s to lose, I’ve got Baron’s over Buckskins 55-49 assuming Conestoga Valley brings their A Game, but if not Manheim Central could run away with it 61-46.
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