Cross Court Vision Semi Final Playoff Preview
Written by: Sterling Cross on February 11, 2025
First things first – my round one predictions were a little off, and that’s putting it nicely. I picked the Braves over the Warriors, had the Barons over the Buckskins, and in general predicted scoring totals that were too high. That said, I think the analysis was good even if the conclusions were mostly wrong – hopefully readers will give partial credit for showing my work!
With that out of the way, let’s look ahead to the semi final double header at Conestoga Valley which tips off tomorrow with Cedar Crest vs Conestoga Valley at 530 followed by Warwick vs Lancaster Mennonite at 730:
Preview:
While Cedar Crest comes in as the higher seeded team and I assume will be wearing the home whites, this is literally a home game for the Buckskins. Lebanon is a pretty good ways away and they’re up first in the early game so it’ll be interesting to see how well the Falcons faithful will be able to travel. On the other side of the bracket both Lancaster Mennonite and Warwick came in as the top seeded team from their respective sections, but regardless of who is in white, Lancaster Mennonite is basically walking distance from Conestoga Valley, while it’s a bit of a drive for the Warriors.
So far in these playoffs, games have been significantly more defensive than the regular season. I guess this should not come as a surprise given the age-old adage “defense wins championships.” I expect that to continue and maybe even intensify in these next two rounds. If the venue favors the Buckskins and the Blazers, I think the defensive emphasis may favor the Falcons and the Warriors in their respective matchups.
Relying on another piece of timeless basketball wisdom, never count out the best player on the court in a single elimination tournament: Isaac Wolfe and Danny Speaks were the best players on the court last night against the Cougars; Demere Salisberry and Sawyer Esbenshade out played Mason Rodgers and Ryan Kenneff; Cody Fisher and Chase Hurst combined for 40 against the Comets; and Ya’Majesty Washington was the best player on the court against Octorara (although Chase Fetrow made a compelling case for the Braves in the 4th quarter before falling just short). On any given night any of the above mentioned players can take over and completely change the game. I’d also add Caleb Johnsen and RJ Young to the list of game breakers. It may come down to which star player has the best game, and that’s anyone’s guess.
By the Numbers:
Cedar Crest vs Conestoga Valley
– I’ve seen the Buckskins 4 times this year and Cedar Crest just once early in the year
– CV has played every team still alive in the LL Playoffs this season. They were 1-4 in those games, but the lone victory was on the road against the Falcons 54-51, behind another 20+ point performance from Demere Salisberry
– The Falcons and the Buckskins have each played Penn Manor and Manheim Township this season. In the most recent matchups against those opponents Cedar Crest is 2-0 with an average +/- of +12 ppg and Conestoga Valley is 1-1 with a +1 ppg average margin. In their most recent games against Manheim Township, Cedar Crest won by 18 whereas Conestoga Valley edged the Blue streaks by 5.
– The Falcons gave up an average of 47 points in wins and 63 ppg in their 7 losses. On the offensive end, they scored roughly the same in wins and losses, 58 and 54 ppg respectively, so it really is a matter of whether opposing offenses can find a way to score.
– The Buckskins have been held below 50 points 9 times this season and are 2-7 in those matchups, but they just beat Manheim Central 48-47 yesterday.
Lancaster Mennonite vs Warwick
– I’ve seen the Blazers play 2 times and the Warriors play 6 times this season in addition to seeing the Blazers several times over the summer in the Iungo World Summer League
– Lancaster Mennonite and Warwick have only one common opponent in Conestoga Valley. The Blazer’s beat the Buckskins by 16 (63-47) on the road in the penultimate game of the season. The Warrior’s beat the Buckskins by an average of 15 in their two matchups this year.
– The Blazers are 19-0 when scoring at least 50 points. They have also shown an ability to grind out wins in slower paced games against bigger more physical competition, they beat Sun Valley 41-34 in a defensive slug fest.
– The Warriors gave up an average of 47 points in wins and 64 ppg in their 4 losses. On the offensive end, they scored roughly the same in wins and losses, 64 and 59 ppg respectively, so it really is a matter of whether opposing offenses can find a way to score.
– Warwick has played in 5 close games this year (defined as games ultimately decided by two possessions or less), owing mostly to the fact that they are blowing teams out by 17 ppg in wins. The Warrior are 2-3 in those match ups including yesterday’s 2 point victory over Octorara
– The Blazers have played in 3 close games this year and are 1-2 in those match ups.
Predictions:
– I’ve got the Warrior’s over the Blazers 52-47 and the Falcon’s over the Buckskins 51-48 setting up a rematch of last years final on Friday.
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