Cross Court Vision Round 1 Play Off Preview: Penn Manor @ Lancaster Mennonite
Written by: Sterling Cross on February 7, 2025
Section 1 and Section 4 ended up pretty well in line with what I thought when I surveyed the landscape at the mid-way point of league play, so catch up on those articles if you want a little more insight into these teams. This is the third of 4 posts previewing each of the Round 1 LL League Play Off Games (read the other two here and here):
Penn Manor @ Lancaster Mennonite:
The Lancaster Mennonite Blazer’s will face off against the Penn Manor Comet’s at home on Monday night in the first round of the LL League Playoffs.
This is perhaps the most intriguing game of the opening round. On it’s face the Blazer’s come in 20-2 overall and undefeated in league play, facing a slumping Comet’s team who enter the post-season on a four game skid. While the Blazer’s are a powerhouse in District 3 class 3A (their numbers this season reflect that beyond any doubt), I expect they would be middle to upper middle of the pack in 5A or 6A competition. That’s just about where Penn Manor resides (16th out of 30 in the 6A power rankings).
From a personnel perspective these teams are remarkably similar. Michael Lower is an exceptional player for the Comets, while the Blazer’s Cody Fisher is making a genuine case for best player in the league (regardless of class). Asaad Salim played behind Chase Hurst last year at Mennonite before transferring to Penn Manor this year. Bill Rothwein can matchup with either of the Comet’s bigs (Ruiz and Mann) and Brady Grau might logically pick up the responsibility for Logan Barnes. I give the Blazers the edge in 3 out of 4 of those individual assignments, while the Comet’s probably have a slight advantage 5-8 in the rotation (Nolt, Bare, Lily and Dixon for the Blazers; Knutsen, Englert, Fisher, et al. for the Comet’s). Mennonite should be favored in any game against a like sized opponent, and the Comet’s are very much a like-sized with their typical player groupings. That said, the difference might not be as big as it would appears at first blush.
What complicates the issue, is that Coach Bellew can put a line up on the floor for the Comets that is bigger than anything the Blazers could match. I’ve never seen the Comet’s play as the bigger team. I don’t know whether they will or if they even know how stylistically, but it’s an option they haven’t typically had. Coach Bellew has consistently found ways to maximize his roster so it wouldn’t shock me to see him try it for at least parts of the game.
By the Numbers:
– I’ve seen the Blazers play 2 times and the Comet’s play 3 times this season in addition to seeing the Blazers several times in the Iungo World Summer League in July
– Lancaster Mennonite and Penn Manor have only one common opponent this season (Conestoga Valley). The Blazer’s beat the Buckskins by 16 (63-47) on the road in the penultimate game of the season. The Comet’s beat the Buckskins by 3 (66-63) at home in the first game of the year.
– The Blazers are 19-0 when scoring at least 50 points. They have also shown an ability to grind out wins in slower paced games against bigger more physical competition. they beat Sun Valley 41-34 in a defensive slug fest, but the only other times the Blazers scored in the 40’s this year ended in single possession losses to Linville Hill and Dock Mennonite.
– Penn Manor is 9-2 in games where they score at least 60 points but have been held below that mark in half of their games this season (4-7 in those contests)
– On average, Lancaster Mennonite scored 10 points more than their opponents defensive average and held opponents 6 points below their offensive average for the season.
– On average, Penn Manor scored 3 points more than their opponents defensive average but opposing offenses scored 2 points above their season average when facing the Comet’s.
Prediction:
– I’ll take Mennonite 63-56
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